Scores & Schedule
This week
Rankings
Power Rankings
Your ballot
Projections
The SoCon race
Projected bracket
Odds & ratings
Seed chances
Chance of finishing in each seed, in percent. Seeds 1–5 (underlined) get a bye to the quarterfinals. Tiebreakers are simplified: head-to-head among the tied teams, then a coin flip.
Preseason model
How the Two Burner Rating works
Every game a SoCon team plays against a Division I opponent is converted to points per 100 possessions. A regression then finds the offense and defense ratings for each SoCon team that best explain those results, after accounting for who they played and where. Non-SoCon opponents are held at Bart Torvik's ratings, which puts our numbers on the national scale. Before the season, each team starts at its preseason projection, worth about four games; that weight fades as real results come in. Games older than about six weeks count a little less, and blowouts past 25 points per 100 count half.
Game predictions turn the rating gap into a projected score. Win chances assume the final margin lands within about 11.8 points of the projection two-thirds of the time, which is how far off predictions were across 2025–26. Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season and the SoCon tournament (March 5–8, Asheville), rerun every night.
Tested on 2025–26: the model missed final margins by 9.3 points per game on average and picked 71% of winners. On the 201 games with a betting line, it missed by 8.95 points; the line missed by 8.92.
Teams · 2026–27
All 11 SoCon teams
Stats
SoCon by the numbers
Team stats
Awards race
Player of the Year race
POY Index = Game Score per game (one number for a box-score line: points, boards, assists, stocks, minus misses and turnovers) plus a bonus for team success: +1 for every 10 points of winning percentage above .500. Impact is on/off per 100 possessions, shown from 1,000 possessions.
Projected All-SoCon
Player stats
ORtg points produced per 100 possessions used (Dean Oliver) · Usg% share of team possessions used while on the floor · TS% scoring efficiency counting threes and free throws · AST% / TO% / ORB% / DRB% / STL% / BLK% share of the available plays the player made · GmSc John Hollinger's Game Score, a one-number box-score summary · BPM* Torvik's box plus-minus, 2025–26 only. 3P% needs 40 attempts and FT% needs 25. Click a player for the full player card.
Make Your Predictions
Your turn
Pick'em
Every SoCon game is pickable. See the whole slate, and pick ahead, on Scores & Schedule.
Preseason predictions
What the fans think
Polls
Admin
Run the show
Power Rankings
Polls
Posted polls
Official tournament seeds
Once the SoCon posts the bracket, put the teams in seed order and publish. Until then the site seeds from the standings.
Preseason model dials
How hard the preseason model leans on each factor. 1× is what the 2022–26 history supports. Saved values apply at the next nightly update.